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Sample data. These are illustrative examples written to show how Okidor works — not real analysis of these companies, and not investment advice.

Thesis holds

NVIDIA Corporation

Written 3 November 2025ConvictionConviction 4 out of 54/5

The compute layer of the AI build-out, protected by CUDA rather than by silicon alone.

Why I invest

I own NVIDIA because the moat is the software, not the chip. CUDA is fifteen years of accumulated tooling that every serious ML team already builds against, and switching means rewriting work that currently runs. Competitors can match raw FLOPS long before they match that. I expect data-centre revenue to keep compounding while gross margin stays above the mid-sixties; if margin slips materially, it tells me pricing power has gone and the moat argument was wrong.

Bull case

CUDA lock-in keeps customers on-platform even when rivals close the hardware gap Data-centre demand broadening from training into inference Pricing power visible in sustained gross margin

Bear case

Hyperscalers shipping credible in-house silicon at scale Export controls removing a whole region of demand Any quarter where margin falls without a one-off explanation

What would prove me wrong

Checked against every filing, earnings call and news item.

  1. 1Gross margin drops below 65%Observed 73.2 against threshold < 65.Holding
  2. 2A major hyperscaler moves production workloads to in-house siliconThis filing contains no disclosure bearing on customer silicon plans.No evidence yet
  3. 3Export restrictions remove a region worth more than 15% of data-centre revenueGeographic disclosure shows no region newly restricted during the period; the affected region remains under 10% of segment revenue.Holding

Position

Target buy
$96.50
Target sell
$245.00

Decision journal

What you did, and what you believed at the time.

  1. 3 Nov 2025
    Boughtat $118.40Conviction 4 out of 5

    Opened the position after the annual report. The risk factors name customer silicon before I did, which I take as a sign the concern is real rather than mine alone.

  2. 21 Jul 2026
    HeldConviction 3 out of 5

    Read the Reuters piece. Holding, but this is the assumption I said I would watch, and I want to see it in a filing before I act on a press report either way.

Do this with your own holdings

Write down why you own something and what would change your mind. Okidor reads every filing, earnings call and material news item against it, and tells you when it matters. Three theses free.

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