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Sample data. These are illustrative examples written to show how Okidor works — not real analysis of these companies, and not investment advice.

Watch signal

Uber Technologies, Inc.

Written 16 September 2025ConvictionConviction 3 out of 53/5

A two-sided network reaching the point where scale finally converts into durable free cash flow.

Why I invest

I own Uber for operating leverage. The network is built and the incremental trip costs almost nothing to serve, so growth should now fall through to margin. What I care about is whether that leverage is real or whether it keeps getting spent on new bets. If they take on debt for acquisitions faster than the core business throws off cash, the thesis is broken.

Bull case

Mobility growth still above 20% with the network already paid for Free cash flow compounding as take rate holds Autonomy optionality that costs little while it stays optional

Bear case

Capital redeployed into low-margin delivery rather than returned Regulatory reclassification of drivers in a major market Leverage rising ahead of cash generation

What would prove me wrong

Checked against every filing, earnings call and news item.

  1. 1Operating margin falls below 5%Not evaluable: this filing carries no XBRL income statement data.No evidence yet
  2. 2Leverage rises ahead of free cash flow generationNew term loan and revolving facilities are disclosed to part-fund the acquisition; interest cost will rise before any acquired cash flow arrives.Near
  3. 3Drivers are reclassified as employees in a market above 10% of bookingsNo evidence yet

Position

Target buy
$62.00
Target sell
$118.00

Decision journal

What you did, and what you believed at the time.

  1. 16 Sept 2025
    Boughtat $71.20Conviction 4 out of 5

    Bought on the operating-leverage argument. Wrote down the debt-for-acquisitions risk at the same time so I could not tell myself later that I had not seen it coming.

  2. 8 Aug 2026
    Soldat $88.60Conviction 3 out of 5

    Sold a third after the Delivery Hero announcement. The audit is right that it is not a breach, but it is exactly the use of capital I said would change my mind, and I would rather act on a warning than wait to be proved right.

Do this with your own holdings

Write down why you own something and what would change your mind. Okidor reads every filing, earnings call and material news item against it, and tells you when it matters. Three theses free.

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